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Quebracho Empanadas MN — Archive & Small-Business Data Journal
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<body>
<nav>
<div class="container">
<a class="brand" href="/">
Quebracho
<em>
MN
</em>
</a>
<div class="links">
<a href="/">
Home
</a>
<a href="/pages/about/">
About
</a>
<a href="/blog/">
Journal
</a>
</div>
</div>
</nav>
<header>
<div class="container">
<h1>
Quebracho Empanadas
<em>
MN
</em>
</h1>
<p>
A small Minneapolis empanada story — and the data lessons of running a 200-order-a-week kitchen when every decision is a forecast.
</p>
<div class="note">
<strong>
About this site:
</strong>
Quebracho Empanadas MN is a Minneapolis-area empanada brand that won the Carlson School MN Cup and was featured in
<em>
HuffPost
</em>
,
<em>
Star Tribune
</em>
,
<em>
Minnesota Monthly
</em>
, and on
<em>
The Current
</em>
. This site archives the public-facing story and publishes a small-business journal on forecasting, inventory, and the operational data lessons that came out of running the kitchen. The domain is now under new stewardship; content from the original commerce site has been retired.
</div>
</div>
</header>
<section>
<div class="container">
<div class="press">
<h3>
Press archive
</h3>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>
Carlson School of Management
</strong>
— Quebracho Empanadas recognized at the MN Cup (2024)
</li>
<li>
<strong>
HuffPost Life
</strong>
— "Want To Cook More At Home This Year?" feature (2021)
</li>
<li>
<strong>
Star Tribune
</strong>
— Minneapolis food scene coverage
</li>
<li>
<strong>
Minnesota Monthly
</strong>
— Food & Beverage feature
</li>
<li>
<strong>
The Current (MPR)
</strong>
— Small-business profile
</li>
<li>
<strong>
White on Rice
</strong>
podcast — Founder interview
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h2>
From the Journal
</h2>
<div class="post">
<span class="cat">
Data · Estimates
</span>
<h3>
<a href="/blog/forecast-scorecard-small-business/">
The Forecast Scorecard: Stop Being Wrong The Same Way Twice
</a>
</h3>
<p class="excerpt">
A spreadsheet-only system for logging every forecast and what actually happened. Three numbers (hit rate, bias, worst miss) that change how you plan more than any tool you can buy.
</p>
<p class="meta">
May 2026 · 11 min read
</p>
</div>
<div class="post">
<span class="cat">
Data · Operations
</span>
<h3>
<a href="/blog/demand-forecasting-small-restaurants/">
Demand Forecasting for a 200-Order Kitchen: What Big-Company Models Get Wrong
</a>
</h3>
<p class="excerpt">
What we learned trying to predict weekly empanada demand. Why ARIMA and Prophet underperform your gut below a certain volume, and what actually worked: a quantile-regression baseline plus a weather-and-weekend correction.
</p>
<p class="meta">
April 2026 · 10 min read
</p>
</div>
<div class="post">
<span class="cat">
Data · Inventory
</span>
<h3>
<a href="/blog/inventory-as-prediction-problem/">
Inventory Is a Prediction Problem, Not an Accounting Problem
</a>
</h3>
<p class="excerpt">
Restaurants treat inventory as last week’s usage times a cushion. That pattern costs real money. Treating every par-level as a probabilistic forecast with an explicit service-level target cut our chicken-filling waste by ~18%.
</p>
<p class="meta">
April 2026 · 8 min read
</p>
</div>
<div class="post">
<span class="cat">
Data · Estimates
</span>
<h3>
<a href="/blog/calibrated-estimates-small-business/">
Point Estimates Lie to Small Business Owners
</a>
</h3>
<p class="excerpt">
"We’ll do $40k next month" is a wish, not a plan. Why small businesses should report calibrated ranges instead of point estimates, and a three-step method any owner can run in a spreadsheet.
</p>
<p class="meta">
April 2026 · 9 min read
</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<footer>
<div class="container">
<p>
© 2026 Quebracho MN. Archive of the Quebracho Empanadas MN public story, now publishing a small-business data journal.
</p>
<p style="margin-top: 8px;">
Forecasting and calibration work discussed here is explored further at
<a href="https://zenhodl.net?ref=quebracho" rel="noopener">
ZenHodl
</a>
.
</p>
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